🚨The $1.17T ad storm is here. Are you overspending?

👋 Welcome back to Signals

Holiday budgets are tightening. Ad spend is soaring. And operators are re-writing playbooks to control their own velocity. In this week’s Signals, we cut through the noise with what matters most: Gen Z’s holiday pullback, Shackelford’s digital-first demand creation, and why ad dollars are consolidating faster than anyone expected. Plus, a fresh Watchlist featuring Lifetimely, Tolstoy, and LSKD.

The takeaway? Q4 winners won’t be the loudest; they’ll be the sharpest with spend, segmentation, and storytelling.

Let’s get into it.

More than one in four consumers plan to cut holiday spending this year.

PwC’s latest data shows Gen Z shoppers tightening their belts the most, trimming nearly 25% off their holiday budgets, which could drag overall holiday sales down by 5%.

Why it matters: This isn’t just seasonal caution. Value and differentiation will decide who wins Q4. Gen Z in particular is trading down, delaying purchases, and seeking dupes. Operators ignoring this group risk losing share fast.

💡Operator Takeaway: Rethink holiday messaging now. Lead with value, urgency, and credibility, not just “newness.” Segment deal-seekers and Gen Z audiences early, test discount vs. non-discount creative, and monitor real-time spend shifts to pivot quickly.

What’s the vibe across the D2C ecosystem right now?

Nick Shackelford nailed the contrast between old-school retail and today’s digital-first playbook: most beverage brands are still discounting to death and hoping shelves clear, while digital-native operators are creating demand online and moving product programmatically.

While other beverage companies pray their shelves move, we click buttons and send emails to empty them.

The old model that's killing traditional beverage..

Make product → Beg retailers for space → Discount to death → Pray it sells, run some coupon campaigns

Everyone's

— Nick Shackelford 🦾 (@iamshackelford)
1:03 PM • Oct 1, 2025

💡 The big lesson for operators: control the velocity lever digitally. Build audience before retail, run geo-targeted campaigns to move shelves, reward in-store buyers through digital offers, and capture emails from every touchpoint. That flips the sequence, instead of begging retailers for space and praying for sell-through, you create demand first and let retailers chase you.

We’re data nerds so you don’t have to be. Each week we’ll bring you some data to chew on with The Data Drop.

Global ad spend is surging faster than expected.

WARC forecasts $1.17 trillion in 2025 ad spend, growing 7.4% YoY (up from earlier 6.2% estimates). Nearly 90% of incremental dollars are going straight into digital, with social and retail media driving most of the gains.

Keep in mind: digital isn’t just winning, it’s consolidating. With three giants (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) capturing more than half of global spend, operators must balance reach with risk.

💡 What this mean tactically, especially prior to BFCM?

• Shift budget tests into social + retail media, where growth is flowing fastest
• Refresh creative weekly to combat fatigue in crowded channels
• Run small reallocations (5–10%) to test for efficiency lifts
• Double down on attribution to ensure you’re not just feeding platform giants without clarity on ROAS

One tool, one brand, one agency to watch out for this week.

In the Toolkit: Lifetimely

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What they do: Lifetimely is a Shopify-first analytics & profitability platform built for D2C brands. It delivers cohort analysis, lifetime value tracking, margin modeling, rebill retention insights, and scenario simulations so you can clearly see what’s driving sustainable growth.

Why it matters: In a landscape where acquisition is expensive and margins are under pressure, it’s not enough to chase revenue, you need to chase profitable revenue. Lifetimely helps brands avoid “revenue illusions” by exposing SKUs, promotions, or cohorts that look good on paper but hurt the bottom line. Instead of modeling blind, you can lean your strategy on clarity.

💡Here’s what this means for you:

1. Use it to flag “hidden losers” - SKUs or promo strategies that look good in revenue but kill margin.
2. Feed your budget allocation decisions through it: shift spend to cohorts/products with better blended returns.
3. Combine with your media tools (Meta, Google) and affiliate channels to tie spend back to profit, not just conversion.

Agency Assist: Tolstoy

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Tolstoy powers interactive video experiences that help high-growth D2C brands turn browsers into buyers. Their platform goes beyond static video; brands can build personalized, choose-your-own-path flows that guide shoppers to the right products, capture zero-party data, and drive higher conversions. Case in point: LSKD used Tolstoy’s shoppable video flows to boost conversion by 24% and see over 110× ROI.

💡 The takeaway for you: In today’s market, attention is expensive and conversions are harder to earn. Tolstoy flips video from “brand awareness” to “revenue engine,” letting operators merge storytelling with shopping. By meeting customers with interactive experiences, you not only move more product, you capture the insights to fuel smarter retargeting and retention.

Put it into play
👉 Add guided video flows on PDPs to help shoppers find their best-fit product without friction.
👉 Use Tolstoy for zero-party data capture, then feed those insights into Klaviyo, Meta, or Google for sharper targeting.
👉 Replace static UGC or brand videos with interactive ones that route customers to bundles, subscriptions, or promos.

Brand Spotlight: LSKD

Check Them Out

What they are & what’s making noise: LSKD (pronounced “Loose Kid”) started in action sports (motocross, BMX) in Australia and has evolved into a high-performance, community-rooted fitness + lifestyle apparel brand. Their “1% better every day” mission drives their product, content, and brand culture

Why they matter right now: LSKD’s story shows how brands can transition from wholesale reliance to full D2C control, all while preserving community, mission, and margin. When they pulled back from retail to own their narrative, they accelerated growth (from ~$3.3M in revenue in earlier years to expecting ~$50M+ in recent cycles) and built direct relationships.

💡What we can steal / apply:

1. Use interactive & shoppable video content to elevate PDPs and boost conversion (LSKD’s 24% lift is solid proof).
2. Lean hard on community feedback loops: LSKD often sources product ideas via social posts and adapts quickly.
3. Don’t fear retail: use it as a complement, not your center. Own your brand voice and don’t let retailers dilute it.

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